Global markets are buzzing with excitement as Asian stocks lead a powerful surge. Japan’s index smashed through 57,000 points for the first time, hitting an all-time high. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 4.1%, and even A-shares showed strength. At the same time, gold and silver are rebounding strongly, while Bitcoin claws back above $70,000 after a brutal crash. But is this the start of a new bull run, or just a short-lived bounce? Let’s break down the key trends, data, and what analysts are saying.
The comes on the back of a big political win. Sanae Takamichi’s election victory has traders betting on loose fiscal policies. This ‘Takamichi trade’ is back in full force, pushing the Nikkei up over 5% in one day. Investors love the idea of more government spending to boost growth.
South Korea isn’t far behind, with KOSPI rising sharply. But not everything is smooth. Bond yields in Japan are climbing for 10-year and 30-year bonds, as stimulus talk pressures fixed income. The yen strengthened briefly but now risks intervention from authorities.
A-shares in China also perked up, adding to the regional optimism. This surge shows how politics and policy can quickly shift market moods.
Across the Pacific, the S&P 500 bounced 2% last Friday. But Goldman Sachs warns of ongoing sell pressure from algo funds called CTAs. If the index drops below 6,707, it could spark $80 billion in forced selling over a month. Low liquidity and bad options dynamics add to the volatility risk.
Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett has his Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.6 – a strong sell signal. He says shift money from big tech and crypto to small caps and global recovery plays. Tech giants’ huge spending is changing their game, possibly ending US market dominance. US 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.242%, signaling higher rates ahead.
is stealing the show in commodities. JPMorgan’s Jason Hunter sees a consolidation phase after wild rallies, but it’s just a breather in a long bull market. Copper could lead the next leg up in Q2, thanks to manufacturing demand. Oil stays range-bound at $60-$70.
Spot gold reclaimed $5,000 but faces resistance at $5,100-$5,150. Support sits at $4,264-$4,381. Silver sees big ETF inflows from retail buyers. China’s Guotou Silver LOF jumped 7.8% after limit-downs, trading at a 34.14% premium.
Bitcoin fell hard but roared back above $70,000. At $70,820 (down 19.2% YTD), daily volume hit $46.36 billion. Fear & Greed Index is at 14 – extreme fear. Is this sustainable?
Bullish views: Tom Lee says recovery is on. Ardi eyes $76,000 if $70,000 holds. Michaël van de Poppe spots capitulation on weekly charts, targeting $85,000 and a CME gap at $84,000. Mel Mattison predicts new highs this summer. Institutions hold firm: MicroStrategy, Bitmine’s Tom Lee, Avenir Group (top Asia IBIT holder), and Binance added 4,225 BTC to SAFU fund (now 10,455 BTC).
Bearish takes: Mostly short-covering rally, not fresh buys. Crash theories include yen-leveraged HK funds liquidated, banks hedging BTC ETF notes (negative gamma), and miners chasing AI profits. Bears like Astronomer short at $72,000, Doctor Profit eyes $44k-$50k drop, Filbfilb/Tony Severino say no full capitulation yet, BitBull wants sub-$50k bottom. Sharpe ratio at -10 matches past bears.
ETH at $2,081 (down 29.8% YTD), volume $21.24B. Yili Hua’s fund dumped 400k ETH (from 651k peak to 20k), losing $700M. But price held above $2,000.
Bulls: Poseidon sees 5-year $2k-$4k range as accumulation like pre-breakout metals. Break $4k for huge gains. 3D RSI oversold, per BigBullMike7335. Ali Charts notes $1,959 Fib level as past bottom.
Bears: Crypto Tony hunts $2,000-$2,050 dips. Trend Research lost $688M selling 658k ETH.
Solana defended $61.64, eyeing $141-$215 in wave 5, says Man of Bitcoin. Meme sector down 5%, but standouts: Maker +30.7%, World Liberty Financial +12%. Upbit volume: XRP tops, then BTC, ETH, AXS, SOL.
ETFs: BTC -$318M outflow (3rd week), ETH -$166M (3rd week), XRP +$39M, SOL -$9M.
Watch these:
Other news: Trump eyes Iran talks. Block (Jack Dorsey’s firm) cuts 10% staff. Arthur Hayes bets on HYPE over big shitcoins. Coinbase Premium up 70% with BTC bounce – may not last.
Asia’s surge lifts spirits, but US warnings and crypto splits show caution. Gold/silver offer safe haven vibes in bull trend. Bitcoin’s rebound feels like relief, with bears lurking. ETH and alts need clean breaks higher.
Volatility rules – use stops, watch supports. Real economy plays like copper, small caps could shine. Stay tuned as Fed misreads and politics mix in.
What do you think – bull trap or real bottom? Share in comments.
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