Bitcoin has taken a sharp turn. The top cryptocurrency by market cap has dropped more than 24% from its peak above $126,000 hit in October. On Friday, BTC fell below $95,000 during the day’s low, matching a broader stock market sell-off. Traders worry about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. By midday, Bitcoin traded just above $96,000.
The decline builds on a tough month. A big sell-off last month came from leveraged trades getting wiped out and long-term holders cashing out. Now, fresh data shows bitcoin ETFs saw huge outflows on Thursday – the second biggest daily pullback ever.
No big buyers are jumping in to support the price. On-chain data backs this up. Metrics like holder behavior and transaction flows point to a clear . This means downward pressure dominates, with sellers outpacing buyers.
Research firm 10X Research crunched the numbers. They say on-chain indicators confirm Bitcoin is stuck in a . No marginal buyers – those who step in at key levels – are showing up.
“This aligns perfectly with multiple on-chain indicators we’ve been tracking,” their latest note states. They warn: if BTC breaks below $93,000, expect more downside soon.
The outlook ties to Fed policy. Without a December rate cut or softer signals ahead, no quick rally looks likely. A classic “Bitcoin Christmas rally” – where prices surge end-of-year – now seems off the table. High odds the Fed stays put on rates.
Even bullish voices are cooling off. Fundstrat strategist Sean Farrell shared a cautious take. “The momentum or lack thereof for Bitcoin right now is an issue,” he told clients.
Farrell sees an “absence of catalysts.” The recent government shutdown dragged on longer than expected. New spending to boost liquidity won’t hit the economy fast. Until then, markets stay choppy.
“A revisit to the low $90K range for BTC might be enough to do the trick here.” – Sean Farrell, Fundstrat
He thinks a bigger risk-off move across assets could shake out weak hands. That reset might draw fresh buyers at lower prices.
The Federal Reserve holds huge sway over risk assets like Bitcoin. Rate cuts flood markets with cheap money, fueling rallies. Delays keep liquidity tight, hitting stocks and crypto alike.
Friday’s stock rout showed this link. Uncertainty over Fed timing crushed sentiment. Bitcoin often mirrors Nasdaq in these swings, amplifying moves.
| Fed Action | Impact on BTC |
|---|---|
| Rate Cut | Bullish – More liquidity |
| Hold Steady | Bearish – Tight money |
| Hike Rates | Very Bearish – Risk-off |
Historically, Bitcoin thrives post-rate cuts. But prolonged holds test even strong hands.
Traders eye these zones:
On-chain data like exchange inflows and holder distribution will signal if selling eases.
Past bears had clear bottoms. 2022’s crash hit $16,000 amid scandals. This dip lacks that drama but shares macro pain. ETF inflows had propped BTC up earlier. Now outflows reverse that.
Still, Bitcoin’s fundamentals shine: halving cycle maturing, adoption growing. A Fed pivot could spark the next leg up.
In a , stay calm. Here’s simple advice:
Avoid FOMO or panic sells. Low $90Ks might offer prime entry.
Short-term, Fed holds mean more chop. But history shows bears end. Post-halving, Bitcoin often consolidates before bull runs. If risk-off resets prices, smart money waits.
Keep eyes on ETF flows, on-chain metrics, and macro news. Bitcoin’s story is far from over.
Stay tuned for live BTC price updates and crypto analysis.
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