We have seen a dramatic drop of Ethereum as low as $260 recently which is even lesser than it was last year at the same time, and one of the main reasons for this is because the ICO’s that raised either started selling as the bear market seemed to last longer than expected.
Hayes points out that another reason for price pump was also because many VC’s started investing in many ERC-20 tokens through hedge funds due to the liquidity that the Crypto markets can offer, but are not used to the price swings and 70% drops that happen in Crypto markets.
He says:
“VC investors loved ICOs in the bull market because they could point to an objective and liquid secondary market valuation. They used these eye-popping returns to raise bigger shitcoin funds in 2017, and early 2018.”
Arthur points out that the VC’s don’t have the stomach to bear the losses hence they will most likely go “F*uck it” and sell everything. Because the VC’s are closely connected and have a kind of a herd mentality they will execute it together.
He said:
“The VC investor who has never suffered the vagaries of the market is as green as the noob who thinks he or she can go from 1 to 100 Bitcoin in a few trading days. They don’t have the mental strength to cut positions to limit further losses, or backup the truck and buy opportune dips even though they are down”
Arthur Hayes Tweeted:
Arthur also talked about Bitcoin local bottom in his article, he points out that the local bottom could be around $5000, he compares the current bear market to that of 2015 where the market range was around $200-250. The miners feel the pain at these price levels leading them to shut down the ASIC’s dropping the difficulty.
He also said that after his talks with some miners who said that they will completely shut down the ASIC’s at around $3000-4000 level after which the hash rate will drop will which might be a good indicator that the bottom is in.
But we have seen only an increase in hashrate so far this year which is higher than ever, and Bitmain is on track to do an IPO. Hayes points out that there is no actual need for Bitmain to do an IPO as they have enough cash flow. According to him: “Bitmain is attempting to top-tick the market before mining profitability slides dramatically.”
With the war chest of cash after the IPO Bitmain will start acquiring its competitors in a bear market sub $5000 Bitcoin when the other miners don’t have enough cash and are vulnerable.
But he also points out that if enough K-street lobbyists convince the congressmen and get the SEC to approve the ETF’s then we will see the “mother” of all short squeezes.
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