Crypto Market Events To Watch This Week As Year Ends: Is a Breakout or Breakdown Next?

As 2025 draws to a close and 2026 looms on the horizon, the crypto market is flashing early recovery signals after a grueling week-long dip. Global market capitalization climbed 0.67% in the last 24 hours, hitting roughly $2.97 trillion. But with key macroeconomic releases packed into this final week, traders are on edge: will we see a breakout into new highs or a painful breakdown?

Current Crypto Market Snapshot: Holding Key Supports

Bitcoin (BTC) is clinging above the crucial $87,000 support, showing resilience amid broader uncertainty. Ethereum (ETH) hovers below $3,000 but hints at a rebound with increasing volume. XRP is steady around $1.85 after a failed push past $2, while Solana (SOL) stays firm above $120.

Altcoins like Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Binance Coin (BNB) are lagging, with minimal rebounds. This divergence suggests majors are leading any potential recovery, but alts need macro catalysts to ignite.

The big question: Can these levels hold through a barrage of U.S. economic data? Let’s break down the crypto market events to watch this week.

Monday: Fed Annual Macro Report and Pending Home Sales

The week kicks off with the Federal Reserve’s annual macroeconomic report, offering clues on inflation trends, GDP forecasts, and financial stability. In a high-interest-rate environment, any hawkish signals could pressure risk assets like crypto, while dovish tones might spark buying.

Also on deck: November pending home sales data. This gauge of housing demand highlights affordability crunches from elevated mortgage rates. Weak numbers could signal economic slowdown, boosting crypto as an inflation hedge—but strong data might reinforce Fed patience on rate cuts.

• Why it matters for crypto: Housing weakness often correlates with broader risk-off sentiment, potentially driving flows into Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’.
• Trader tip: Watch for inflation readouts; sub-2% could fuel rate-cut bets.

Tuesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes and S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices

Tuesday brings the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, revealing the Fed’s internal debates on interest rates ahead of the late-January gathering. Investors crave hints on pause, cut, or hike paths—pivotal for crypto’s correlation with liquidity.

Paired with the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, these releases underscore housing market strains. Persistent price growth amid low affordability could stoke inflation fears, delaying rate relief.

“NEXT WEEK’S SCHEDULE IS EXTREMELY VOLATILE! MONDAY → FED ANNUAL MACRO DATA | TUESDAY → FOMC MEETING | WEDNESDAY → INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS | THURSDAY → NEW YEAR HOLIDAY | FRIDAY → MONEY SUPPLY REPORT. DON’T GET SHAKEN OUT AHEAD OF THE 2026 BULL RUN!”

— Crypto Analyst on X

• Crypto impact: Dovish minutes have historically pumped BTC by 5-10% in days following.
• Key level: BTC rejection at $90K could signal trouble.

Wednesday: Initial Jobless Claims – Labor Market Pulse

The U.S. Department of Labor drops weekly initial jobless claims, last clocking in at 214,000 (down 10K). A continued drop signals labor strength, supporting the Fed’s ‘no rush’ stance on cuts. Rising claims? That flips the script toward easing, a boon for crypto.

Historical note: Spikes in claims during 2024 triggered BTC rallies as markets priced in liquidity boosts.

Thursday: New Year’s Holiday – Thin Liquidity Risks

Markets thin out for New Year’s, amplifying volatility from prior data. Expect whipsaws; position sizing is key to avoid getting shaken out.

Friday: Money Supply (M2) Report – Liquidity Lifeline

Closing the week: U.S. M2 money supply data. Expanding M2 floods markets with liquidity, historically bullish for crypto (correlation coefficient ~0.8 with BTC). Shrinking supply? Brace for downside pressure as investors flee to safer havens.

M2 growth has underpinned 2025’s ETF-fueled surge; watch if it sustains the 2026 bull narrative.

Price Levels to Watch: Breakout or Breakdown?

For a confirmed breakout:

• BTC: Clear $90,000 with volume → targets $95K+.
• ETH: Breach $3,000 resistance → altseason spark.
• XRP: Reclaim $2 → Ripple momentum.
• SOL: Hold $120, push $140.

Breakdown risks:

• BTC under $87K → $80K cascade.
• ETH sub-$2,800 → deeper correction.

2026 Outlook: Rollercoaster Ahead?

2025 was wild—ETFs approved, institutions piled in, BTC hit ATHs. Analysts eye 2026 as extension: halving afterglow, regulatory clarity, AI-blockchain fusion. But macro headwinds (rates, geopolitics) loom.

This week’s events could set the tone. Bullish data = liquidity party, breakout likely. Hawkish surprises? Breakdown to retest lows.

Stay vigilant, diversify, and don’t get shaken out. The crypto market events to watch this week might just decide if 2026 roars or whimpers.

What do you think—breakout or breakdown? Share in the comments!

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