Bitcoin Cycle Patterns Reveal $31,500 Bottom Potential – Expert Breakdown

Bitcoin Faces Tough Times: A Deeper Drop Ahead?

Bitcoin price is stuck. It can’t break past the $70,000 level. This makes many worry about a bigger fall. A market analyst points to a that suggests a low around . This idea comes from looking at past market ups and downs.

The crypto market has cooled off. Bitcoin dropped over 45% since October. It went from a high of $126,000 down to $60,000 at times. Now, traders watch for signs of where the bottom might be.

Understanding the Supply In Profit Indicator

One key tool is the Supply In Profit metric. It shows what part of all Bitcoin in circulation is worth more now than when it last moved. Think of it like this: if you bought BTC cheap and price rose, your coins are “in profit.”

This indicator acts like a cycle clock. Near market tops, almost all supply is in profit – everyone feels rich. At bottoms, very little is. It squeezes tight during lows.

• Tops: High profit supply, greed peaks.
• Bottoms: Low profit supply, fear rules.

Analysts use it to spot cycle turns. It’s simple but powerful for long-term views.

Lessons from the 2022 Bitcoin Bear Market

Look back to 2022. Bitcoin hit $69,000 all-time high then. It crashed 77% to about $15,500. The Supply In Profit stayed in the bottom zone for six months.

That long low-profit period marked the true bottom. Prices stayed weak until it recovered. History shows these phases last months, not weeks.

Image: Supply In Profit during 2022 bear market (hypothetical chart).

Mapping the Pattern to Today’s Cycle

The same analyst, Yonsei_dent, applied this to now. If the current cycle mirrors 2022’s six-month bottom phase, Bitcoin could drop 70-75% from its peak.

From $126,000 high, that points to $31,500 to $38,000 range. From today’s price around $63,500, it’s a 41-51% more drop.

Why this range? The indicator hasn’t hit those lows yet. It suggests more pain before relief.

Cycle	Peak Price	Drawdown	Bottom Price	Bottom Duration
2022	$69,000	77%	$15,500	6 months
Current (Projected)	$126,000	70-75%	$31,500-$38,000	6 months?

Bitcoin’s Current Price Snapshot

Right now, Bitcoin trades at $63,553. It fell 5.84% in the last day. Trading volume is $40.04 billion, up just 0.54%.

Weekly loss: 6.21%. Monthly: 27.11%. The $70,000 wall holds strong. No break means risk of more downside or sideway moves.

Image: BTC daily chart showing resistance at $70k.

Why This Pattern Might Hold – Or Not

Bitcoin cycles tie to halvings every four years. Supply cuts boost prices long-term. But short-term, corrections wipe out weak hands.

Supports the bear case:

• On-chain data matches past lows.
• Macro factors like high rates hurt risk assets.
• Low profit supply still has room to fall.

Bull counters:

• ETF inflows could support prices.
• Halving already passed; recovery might start sooner.
• New highs in adoption (institutions, nations).

If BTC holds $60,000, bulls might win. A drop below could confirm the .

What Happens After the Bottom?

History says big wins follow. Post-2022, BTC rose 5x to new highs. A $31,500 low could spark the next bull run to $200,000+.

Watch for:

1. Supply In Profit rebound.
2. Volume spike on up days.
3. Break above key moving averages.

Final Thoughts on Bitcoin’s Path

The gives a clear warning: prepare for $31,500-$38,000. It’s not set in stone, but data backs it. Stay informed, manage risk, and watch on-chain signals.

Bitcoin’s journey is full of surprises. Will history repeat? Time will tell.

FAQ: Bitcoin Cycle Bottom Questions

Q: Is $31,500 guaranteed?
A: No, it’s a projection based on past patterns. Markets can change.

Q: How reliable is Supply In Profit?
A: Very for cycles, but combine with other tools.

Q: When might we see the bottom?
A: If six months like 2022, in coming months.

Keep trading smart in this volatile space.

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