Bitcoin has once again tested the crucial level, sparking excitement among traders and investors. This week, the price climbed to that key mark before pulling back to around $68,306. The surge came after better-than-expected US manufacturing data boosted market mood. Yet, deeper signals from on-chain data hint at ongoing bearish pressures in the crypto space.
The action started with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 2026. It hit 52.4, topping forecasts of 51.8. Though down slightly from January’s 52.6, it showed factory activity still growing. New orders slowed a bit due to tariffs and high costs, but the market loved the positive surprise.
Bitcoin jumped right after the release, breaking out of its tight $64,000 to $70,000 range. Traders saw it as a sign of economic strength, which often lifts risk assets like crypto.
Crypto-linked stocks surged too. Companies like Strategy, Marathon Digital, Coinbase, and Robinhood rose 5% to 7%. Circle leaped 15%, and Bitmine gained 7.48% to $20.40.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw strong inflows, showing big institutions buying in. This spot demand helped push prices up. Trading volume stayed high as everyone waited for more data like ISM Services PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls. These could sway views on interest rates, keeping Bitcoin tied to macro news.
Not all news was good. Rising tensions between the US and Iran, plus Middle East conflicts, hurt risk assets. Global stocks fell, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 down over 3% in two days. Asian markets like South Korea’s Kospi also dropped sharply.
Oil prices spiked on supply fears, gold rallied as a safe haven, and the US dollar index hit 98.72 amid inflation worries. Bitcoin dipped as much as 4.4% to $66,348 before stabilizing near $66,800-$67,966. Threats to the Strait of Hormuz added fuel to the fire, pushing investors to safer bets.
Experts note Bitcoin acts more like a risk asset than ‘digital gold’ in crises. It mirrors stocks during shocks but shows maturity with less extreme selling than before.
Despite the bounce, on-chain metrics paint a cautious picture. CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator sits below zero and under its 365-day average—a classic bear market sign.
Network activity is stabilizing, with better transaction volumes. But derivatives show low futures action and negative funding rates. Shorts are paying longs to hold, signaling over-caution that could lead to a short squeeze if sentiment flips.
This setup echoes early 2022: short rallies after shocks, followed by deeper drops. Bitcoin’s structure is stronger now, with less retail leverage and steady institutional buys.
Ethereum followed Bitcoin, hitting $1,952-$1,965 with modest gains. Better risk appetite lifted top coins. ETH saw spot buying and ETF flow support, but leverage stays low.
The whole market traded in sync, sensitive to macro shifts. Upcoming jobs data and services PMI will be key watchers.
Analysts see a mixed bag. Heavy deleveraging earlier helped absorb shocks. Institutional depth via ETFs and corporate holdings acts as a buffer, unlike past cycles.
One view: Negative funding rates show extreme bearishness, often preceding sharp reversals on short covering. But oil spikes could stoke inflation, delaying rate cuts and hurting crypto.
Historical parallels warn of pain: 2021-2022 oil rally crushed Bitcoin from $60k+ to under $20k. If energy fears persist, yields rise, and liquidity tightens, upside may stall.
The retest reignited hope, but risks loom large. Strong data lifted spirits, yet geopolitics and bearish indicators temper joy. Bitcoin trades in a fragile correction phase.
Watch for sustained ETF inflows, oil prices, and Fed signals. A break above $70k needs macro tailwinds; failure could test $64k support.
For traders, this is a high-stakes game. Position lightly, eye data releases, and remember: in crypto, sentiment shifts fast.
Current snapshots: BTC ~$67,966 | ETH ~$1,965. Stay tuned as markets evolve.
Discuss this news on our Telegram Community. Subscribe to us on Google news and do follow us on Twitter @Blockmanity
Did you like the news you just read? Please leave a feedback to help us serve you better
Disclaimer: Blockmanity is a news portal and does not provide any financial advice. Blockmanity's role is to inform the cryptocurrency and blockchain community about what's going on in this space. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment. Blockmanity won't be responsible for any loss of funds.
Trump Fires Up Crypto Fans with Bold Call on In a fiery Truth Social post,…
Set to Become Blockchain's Main Users, NEAR Co-Founder Predicts The world of crypto has seen…
Best Crypto to Buy with $2,000 Right Now for a 5-Year Hold: Breakdown Thinking about…
: How Ripple's Stablecoin Bet Could Cap the Token's Upside XRP has seen wild swings.…
What is the ? In a shocking case of financial fraud, at least have lost…
How Are Expanding to Over 100 Countries In the fast-growing world of crypto and blockchain,…